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2024-12-14 11:54:17

Bai Zhongen: Under special circumstances, short-term breakthrough in deficit and debt may help solve long-term problems. Bai Zhongen, president of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that in the understanding and implementation of policies, there are sometimes some stereotypes, which make us bound by these stereotypes. Breaking these constraints is very important for our policy understanding and policy implementation. The first mindset is that it will bring moral hazard if the central government helps local governments pay their debts. The second mindset, in the past, some people insisted that the deficit should not exceed a certain proportion and the debt should not exceed a certain proportion. He bluntly said that the upper limit of debt and deficit also depends on short-term and long-term. In the long run, we can't have too many deficits and too many debts. Therefore, when we encounter special circumstances in the short term, we should allow the deficit and debt to exceed a certain ratio.Institution: It is expected that the PC market in China will resume growth in the second half of 2025. IDC, an international data company, issued a document saying that the overall PC market in China is expected to improve in 2025, and the shipment volume will drop slightly by 0.2% compared with that in 2024. Among them, the first half of 2025 will be affected by the early release of demand at the end of 2024, and the expected shipment volume is still negative, down 4.2% year-on-year; In the second half of 2025, it will improve as a whole, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%.Lin Yifu: Four advantages empower China's economy and drive global development. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. It was pointed out that in 2025, more active and promising macro policies will be implemented to expand domestic demand and promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. Lin Yifu, president of Peking University New jiegou Research Institute, said in an interview that the advantages of talent, market, supply chain and system make China continuously competitive, and China will continue to be the driving force of global economic growth. (CGTN)


Scientific and technological innovation leads the high-quality development of the economy, and the 100tf (588,190) of Science and Technology Innovation may meet the layout window period. By midday on December 13th, the 100tf (588,190) of Science and Technology Innovation had fallen by 2.08%, with a turnover of 181 million yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed. In terms of rising, Alice led the rise, and Hengxuan Technology followed suit. In terms of decline, Guo Dun Quantum led the decline, while Core Source followed slightly. In the news, from December 11th to 12th, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, which made a systematic plan for next year's economic work. Regarding the highlights of the conference, CITIC Jiantou said that "scientific and technological innovation" ranked first in the ranking of key tasks last year, and it was divided into independent segments and listed a number of emerging technologies, industries and tracks in a large space. This year's science and technology-related expressions focus on "artificial intelligence+",and we expect "AI+" to be the core variety of future science and technology themes. In addition, scientific and technological innovation is in the big paragraph of "new quality productivity" this year, ranking second in all key tasks. Wanlian Securities said that scientific and technological innovation is the vanguard to lead the high-quality economic development, and it is also the only way for the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, emerging industries and future industries to grow and develop.At the close of early trading, the main contracts of domestic futures fell more and rose less. The European line of container transportation rose by over 5%, while alumina, SC crude oil and Shanghai nickel rose by over 1%. In terms of decline, coke, No.20 glue and caustic soda fell by more than 2%, while glass, coking coal, Shanghai Bank, hot coil, rubber and BR rubber fell by more than 1%.New Beiyang (Thailand) Company opened. According to the news of New Beiyang, on December 12th, the launching ceremony of New Beiyang (Thailand) Company was held in chonburi province, Thailand. This was the first factory established by New Beiyang overseas, which marked another major breakthrough in the company's internationalization strategy and laid a solid foundation for the company's future internationalization development. The park leased by New Beiyang (Thailand) Company covers an area of more than 5,500 square meters in the first phase. At present, the special printing and scanning product line built in the factory has been successfully put into production and is ready to start mass delivery. In the future, the company will continue to expand the production and delivery of some smart equipment products in Thai factories.


Afternoon comment: index adjustment The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.49% in half a day. Bean bag concept stocks were strong in early trading, and the index was collectively adjusted in early trading. The three major stock indexes all fell by more than 1%. In terms of sectors, the concept stocks of bean bags were strong in early trading, and the collective daily limit of three-dimensional communication, Beiwei Technology, Global Printing, and Zhewen Internet; The concept of ice and snow industry continued its upward trend. Jingxue energy-saving 20cm daily limit, iceberg cold and hot, snowman shares and other daily limit closures; The game e-sports sector is active, and the daily limit of Zhewen Internet and Electric Soul Network is up; Real estate stocks continued to adjust, and Hefei Urban Construction and Gorgeous Family were among the top losers. Food, liquor and other consumer sectors fell into a callback, and Yiming food fell to a limit; Insurance stocks weakened collectively, led by China Life Insurance. Overall, individual stocks showed a general decline trend, with more than 4,100 stocks falling. On the disk, the Aauto Quicker concept, short play games and cultural media sectors were among the top gainers, while the insurance, liquor and real estate sectors were among the top losers.Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Market News: Indonesia's central bank has made triple intervention to maintain market confidence in the Indonesian rupiah.

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